EUROPE IN THE AGE OF NEW MULTIPOLARITY

By Ilija Saula

A Provocative Thesis with Deep Strategic Roots

The idea that Russia would not allow the European Union to collapse may sound provocative at first glance — even counterintuitive in a time when Moscow and Brussels appear locked in irreconcilable opposition. Yet this very idea reveals a deeper structure of the contemporary world: great systems do not disappear because someone wishes them to, but because they lose their strategic function. And Europe, despite its internal weaknesses, still serves a function — for Russia, for the United States, for China, and for the rest of the world.

The European Union today is shaken by political crises, elite turnover, rising populism, and fatigue with integration. But beneath that turbulence lies one of the most powerful economic spaces on the planet. With more than 440 million people, a GDP exceeding $16 trillion, and some of the most advanced industrial infrastructure in the world, Europe is not a project that can vanish overnight. It is too large to fail — and too important for major powers to allow it to disintegrate.

Russia’s Strategic Interest: A Stable, Not a Weak, Europe

Russia understands this well. Moscow knows that the collapse of the EU would create chaos along its western borders, disrupt trade flows, destabilize energy corridors, and undermine the security balance. Even amid the war in Ukraine, the Russian economy remains deeply intertwined with European markets, and European industry has for decades relied on Russian energy. That interdependence has not disappeared — it has merely been politically obscured. For this reason, Russia’s interest lies in a Europe that is stable, predictable, and functional, even if political relations remain cold.

Europe, however, will have to change from within. The current political elites in many EU states no longer match the pace of a world transforming faster than ever before. In the coming years, a generational shift in leadership is inevitable, and new leaders will need to understand multipolarity not as a threat but as a structural reality. Germany and France will remain important, but they will no longer be the sole centers of decision‑making. Eastern, southern, and Central European states with growing economies will gain greater weight. Europe will have to accept that its power no longer rests on hierarchy, but on networks.

In this new configuration, the United Kingdom occupies a unique position. Though outside the EU, it has not left Europe. On the contrary, London will deepen its ties with the United States and Canada, strengthen its role in NATO, and maintain influence across Australia and the broader Anglosphere. Brexit was not a retreat — it was a geopolitical repositioning. Britain will remain a bridge between Europe and America, but a bridge standing on its own foundations.

Energy as the Structural Pillar of the Future Order

Energy remains one of the most decisive elements of the emerging global order. Europe has dramatically diversified its energy sources in the past two years, yet it remains dependent on imports. Russia, despite sanctions, retains its status as one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas, with its energy flows increasingly directed toward Asia. China, India, and Southeast Asian nations have become the primary buyers of Russian energy, reshaping the global energy map.

Europe will have to accept that energy security is possible only through a combination of renewables, nuclear power, and stable import channels. In this context, Russia will remain a factor — even if political normalization takes time.

China and Europe: An Economic Gravity That Cannot Be Ignored

China is a story of its own. It is already the EU’s largest trading partner, the world’s leading industrial producer, and one of the biggest investors in European infrastructure. The Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese investments in ports, railways, and telecommunications, and growing technological cooperation bind Europe and China in a deep economic embrace. Beijing has every interest in a stable Europe, as the European market is among the most profitable in the world. China does not seek a weakened EU — it seeks a partner that grants access to technology, markets, and political influence. In the triangle of the United States, the EU, and China, Europe has the potential to be a balancing force rather than an object of competing interests.

Greenland and the Arctic: A New Geopolitical Axis

In the broader transatlantic context, Greenland is gaining new strategic significance. Its geographic position, natural resources, and proximity to Arctic routes make it one of the most important territories of the future. The United States will seek to strengthen its influence there, supported by Denmark and broader European structures. The Arctic is becoming a space of cooperation — and competition — and America’s presence there may become one of the pillars of global stability. If transatlantic relations are renewed and strengthened, Greenland will be a symbol of that new phase.

Europe as a Potential Winner of the Multipolar World

Despite all tensions, Europe could emerge as one of the major beneficiaries of a multipolar world. Its infrastructure, educated population, technological sophistication, and cultural maturity make it an ideal space for stable and prosperous living. Europe is accustomed to being a consumer society, but also a society of high standards. In a multipolar world, it can become a bridge between East and West — and bridges are always the most valuable structures.

Africa and the Arab World: New Centers of Growth

Africa and the Arab world remain important partners for major powers, but with their own visions of development. Their roles in energy, demographics, and logistics will grow, shaped by the interests of global actors. They are no longer the periphery — they are emerging centers of growth.

In such a world, the rhetoric of war often serves as a smokescreen. It distracts from deeper processes: economic restructuring, new trade routes, emerging alliances, and the redefinition of global power. The world is not on the brink of destruction — it is on the brink of transformation.

The Cultural Meaning of Peace

In the end, one truth remains — a truth artists, writers, and thinkers feel more deeply than politicians: peace is not merely a political category; it is a cultural value. The rapprochement between Russia and the United States is not just a diplomatic task — it is a civilizational one. Without these two poles, the world cannot be stable. And we, as citizens of the world, have a duty to build bridges, not walls. Peace is not weakness — peace is humanity’s greatest strategy.